{"id":923,"date":"2026-06-11T11:48:20","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T11:48:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/economic-forecasting-and-modeling\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T09:59:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T09:59:29","slug":"economic-forecasting-and-modeling","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/economic-forecasting-and-modeling\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Forecasting and Modeling"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"cs-content\" class=\"cs-content\"><div class=\"x-section e923-e1 mpn-0 mpn-1\"><div class=\"x-row e923-e2 mpn-8 mpn-9 mpn-a mpn-b mpn-c mpn-d mpn-e mpn-f mpn-p mpn-q\"><div class=\"x-bg\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><div class=\"x-bg-layer-lower-image\"><\/div><div class=\"x-bg-layer-upper-custom\"><style>\n.grad-top,\n.grad-bottom,\n.grad-left {\n  position: absolute;\n}\n.grad-top {\n  top: 0; left: 0;\n  width: 100%; height: 50%;\n  background: linear-gradient(to bottom, rgba(29,25,53,0.5), transparent);\n}\n.grad-bottom {\n  display: none;\n  bottom: 0; left: 0;\n  width: 100%; height: 30%;\n}\n.grad-left {\n  bottom: 0; left: 0;\n  width: 30%; height: 100%;\n  background: linear-gradient(to right, rgba(29,25,53,0.9), transparent);\n}\n@media (max-width: 1024px) {\n  .grad-left {\n    display: none;\n  }\n  .grad-top {\n  top: 0; left: 0;\n  width: 100%; height: 50%;\n  background: linear-gradient(to bottom, rgba(29,25,53,0.5), transparent);\n}\n  .grad-bottom {\n    display: block;\n    height: 80%;\n    background: linear-gradient(to top, rgba(29,25,53,0.9), transparent);\n  }\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"grad-top\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"grad-bottom\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"grad-left\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-row-inner\"><div class=\"x-col e923-e3 mpn-x mpn-y mpn-z mpn-10 mpn-11 mpn-12 mpn-13 mpn-14\"><div class=\"x-text x-text-headline e923-e4 mpn-1a mpn-1b mpn-1c mpn-1d\"><div class=\"x-text-content\"><div class=\"x-text-content-text\"><h1 class=\"x-text-content-text-primary\">Economic Forecasting and Modeling<\/h1>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e5 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1k mpn-1l mpn-1m\">We interpret and forecast future economic processes on the basis of data-driven models.<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-section e923-e6 mpn-0 mpn-2 mpn-3\"><div class=\"x-row x-container max width e923-e7 mpn-9 mpn-a mpn-c mpn-e mpn-g mpn-h mpn-i mpn-j mpn-p mpn-r\"><div class=\"x-row-inner\"><div class=\"x-col e923-e8 mpn-x mpn-y mpn-11 mpn-12 mpn-14 mpn-15 mpn-16\"><div class=\"x-text x-text-headline e923-e9 mpn-1a mpn-1e mpn-1f\"><div class=\"x-text-content\"><div class=\"x-text-content-text\"><span class=\"x-text-content-text-subheadline\">Verifiable methodology<\/span>\n<h2 class=\"x-text-content-text-primary\">For us, forecasting is not fortune-telling but methodology.<\/h2><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-col e923-e10 mpn-12 mpn-14 mpn-16\"><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e11 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1k mpn-1l mpn-1n\"><span>Our models not only chart macroeconomic trajectories but also show how economic and social factors interact with one another \u2014 from consumption habits to labour-market processes. <\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-row x-container max width e923-e12 mpn-8 mpn-9 mpn-c mpn-k mpn-l mpn-m mpn-s acc-bg-section\"><div class=\"x-row-inner\"><div class=\"x-col e923-e13 mpn-x mpn-y mpn-10 mpn-12 mpn-14 mpn-15 mpn-16 mpn-17\"><div class=\"x-acc x-hide-md x-hide-sm x-hide-xs e923-e14 mpn-1r\" id=\"x-acc-e923-e14\"><div class=\"e923-e15 x-acc-item\" data-bg=\"makro\"><button id=\"tab-e923-e15\" class=\"x-acc-header x-active\" role=\"button\" type=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"true\" aria-controls=\"panel-e923-e15\" data-x-toggle=\"collapse\" data-x-toggleable=\"e923-e15\" data-x-toggle-group=\"e923-e14\"><span class=\"x-acc-header-content\"><span class=\"x-acc-header-indicator\"><i class=\"x-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-x-icon-l=\"&#xe59e;\"><\/i><\/span><span class=\"x-acc-header-text\">Macroeconomic forecasting<\/span><\/span><\/button><div id=\"panel-e923-e15\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-hidden=\"false\" aria-labelledby=\"tab-e923-e15\" data-x-toggleable=\"e923-e15\" data-x-toggle-collapse=\"1\"><div class=\"x-acc-content\"><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e16 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1l mpn-1m mpn-1o\"><span>Regular, model-based forecasting of GDP, inflation, the labour market and external balance over the short and medium term.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"e923-e17 x-acc-item\" data-bg=\"szektor\"><button id=\"tab-e923-e17\" class=\"x-acc-header\" role=\"button\" type=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"panel-e923-e17\" data-x-toggle=\"collapse\" data-x-toggleable=\"e923-e17\" data-x-toggle-group=\"e923-e14\"><span class=\"x-acc-header-content\"><span class=\"x-acc-header-indicator\"><i class=\"x-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-x-icon-l=\"&#xe59e;\"><\/i><\/span><span class=\"x-acc-header-text\">Sector trends<\/span><\/span><\/button><div id=\"panel-e923-e17\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-hidden=\"true\" aria-labelledby=\"tab-e923-e17\" data-x-toggleable=\"e923-e17\" data-x-toggle-collapse=\"1\" class=\"x-collapsed\"><div class=\"x-acc-content\"><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e18 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1l mpn-1m mpn-1o\"><span>Analysis and forecasting of industry-level processes, taking demand, pricing and the regulatory environment jointly into account.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"e923-e19 x-acc-item\" data-bg=\"forgatokonyv\"><button id=\"tab-e923-e19\" class=\"x-acc-header\" role=\"button\" type=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"panel-e923-e19\" data-x-toggle=\"collapse\" data-x-toggleable=\"e923-e19\" data-x-toggle-group=\"e923-e14\"><span class=\"x-acc-header-content\"><span class=\"x-acc-header-indicator\"><i class=\"x-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-x-icon-l=\"&#xe59e;\"><\/i><\/span><span class=\"x-acc-header-text\">Scenario analysis<\/span><\/span><\/button><div id=\"panel-e923-e19\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-hidden=\"true\" aria-labelledby=\"tab-e923-e19\" data-x-toggleable=\"e923-e19\" data-x-toggle-collapse=\"1\" class=\"x-collapsed\"><div class=\"x-acc-content\"><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e20 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1l mpn-1m mpn-1o\"><span>Outlining and quantifying alternative future trajectories, so that decisions are well-founded even in an uncertain environment.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"e923-e21 x-acc-item\" data-bg=\"hatas\"><button id=\"tab-e923-e21\" class=\"x-acc-header\" role=\"button\" type=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"panel-e923-e21\" data-x-toggle=\"collapse\" data-x-toggleable=\"e923-e21\" data-x-toggle-group=\"e923-e14\"><span class=\"x-acc-header-content\"><span class=\"x-acc-header-indicator\"><i class=\"x-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-x-icon-l=\"&#xe59e;\"><\/i><\/span><span class=\"x-acc-header-text\">Impact modelling<\/span><\/span><\/button><div id=\"panel-e923-e21\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-hidden=\"true\" aria-labelledby=\"tab-e923-e21\" data-x-toggleable=\"e923-e21\" data-x-toggle-collapse=\"1\" class=\"x-collapsed\"><div class=\"x-acc-content\"><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e22 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1l mpn-1m mpn-1o\"><span>Quantifying the expected economic and social impacts of policy measures, market changes and investments.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-div x-hide-lg x-hide-xl e923-e23 mpn-1s mpn-1t mpn-1u mpn-1v\"><div class=\"x-div e923-e24 mpn-1s mpn-1u mpn-1v mpn-1w mpn-1x mpn-1y mpn-1z mpn-20\"><div class=\"x-slide-container-viewport is-loading e923-e25 mpn-28\" data-x-slide-container=\"{&quot;keyboardNavigation&quot;:true,&quot;snap&quot;:true,&quot;direction&quot;:&quot;forward&quot;,&quot;startingSlide&quot;:1}\"><div class=\"x-slide-container-content x-container max width\"><div class=\"x-slide-container is-inline is-paged\"><div class=\"x-slide e923-e26 mpn-29\" data-x-slide=\"\" data-bg=\"makro\"><div class=\"x-text x-text-headline e923-e27 mpn-1a mpn-1b mpn-1g\"><div class=\"x-text-content\"><div class=\"x-text-content-text\"><h3 class=\"x-text-content-text-primary\">Macroeconomic forecasting<\/h3>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e28 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1m mpn-1o mpn-1p\"><span>Regular, model-based forecasting of GDP, inflation, the labour market and external balance over the short and medium term.<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-slide e923-e29 mpn-29\" data-x-slide=\"\" data-bg=\"szektor\"><div class=\"x-text x-text-headline e923-e30 mpn-1a mpn-1b mpn-1g\"><div class=\"x-text-content\"><div class=\"x-text-content-text\"><h3 class=\"x-text-content-text-primary\">Sector trends<\/h3>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e31 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1m mpn-1o mpn-1p\"><span>Analysis and forecasting of industry-level processes, taking demand, pricing and the regulatory environment jointly into account.<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-slide e923-e32 mpn-29\" data-x-slide=\"\" data-bg=\"forgatokonyv\"><div class=\"x-text x-text-headline e923-e33 mpn-1a mpn-1b mpn-1g\"><div class=\"x-text-content\"><div class=\"x-text-content-text\"><h3 class=\"x-text-content-text-primary\">Scenario analysis<\/h3>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e34 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1m mpn-1o mpn-1p\"><span>Outlining and quantifying alternative future trajectories, so that decisions are well-founded even in an uncertain environment.<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-slide e923-e35 mpn-29\" data-x-slide=\"\" data-bg=\"hatas\"><div class=\"x-text x-text-headline e923-e36 mpn-1a mpn-1b mpn-1g\"><div class=\"x-text-content\"><div class=\"x-text-content-text\"><h3 class=\"x-text-content-text-primary\">Impact modelling<\/h3>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e37 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1m mpn-1o mpn-1p\"><span>Quantifying the expected economic and social impacts of policy measures, market changes and investments.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-div x-container max width e923-e38 mpn-1s mpn-1u mpn-1v mpn-1w mpn-21 mpn-22 mpn-5\"><a class=\"x-div e923-e39 mpn-1s mpn-1v mpn-1w mpn-1x mpn-1z mpn-23\" href=\"#prev\" data-x-effect-provider=\"colors particles effects\" data-x-slide-prev=\"\"><i class=\"x-icon e923-e40 mpn-2a\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-x-icon-l=\"&#xf104;\"><\/i><\/a><ul class=\"x-slide-pagination is-row e923-e41 mpn-2b\" data-x-slide-pagination=\"\"><\/ul><a class=\"x-div e923-e42 mpn-1s mpn-1v mpn-1w mpn-1x mpn-1z mpn-23\" href=\"#next\" data-x-effect-provider=\"colors particles effects\" data-x-slide-next=\"\"><i class=\"x-icon e923-e43 mpn-2a\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-x-icon-l=\"&#xf105;\"><\/i><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-section e923-e44 mpn-0 mpn-2 mpn-4\"><div class=\"x-row x-container max width e923-e45 mpn-9 mpn-a mpn-c mpn-e mpn-g mpn-h mpn-j mpn-m mpn-p mpn-t\"><div class=\"x-row-inner\"><div class=\"x-col e923-e46 mpn-x mpn-y mpn-11 mpn-12 mpn-14 mpn-15 mpn-16\"><div class=\"x-text x-text-headline e923-e47 mpn-1a mpn-1e mpn-1f\"><div class=\"x-text-content\"><div class=\"x-text-content-text\"><span class=\"x-text-content-text-subheadline\">Publications<\/span>\n<h2 class=\"x-text-content-text-primary\">Analyses that go beyond the news<\/h2><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-col e923-e48 mpn-12 mpn-14 mpn-16\"><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e49 mpn-1i mpn-1j mpn-1k mpn-1l mpn-1n\"><span>Data-driven research and policy analysis to foster a deeper understanding of economic and social processes.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-row x-container max width e923-e50 mpn-9 mpn-a mpn-b mpn-c mpn-d mpn-e mpn-g mpn-p mpn-u\"><div class=\"x-row-inner\"><div class=\"x-col e923-e51 mpn-12 mpn-14 mpn-16\"><div class=\"x-row e923-e52 mpn-9 mpn-a mpn-b mpn-g mpn-n mpn-v\"><div class=\"x-row-inner\"><a class=\"x-col e923-e53 mpn-12 mpn-16 mpn-18\" href=\"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/2024\/01\/08\/how-can-we-attract-hungarian-emigrants-back-home\/\" data-x-effect-provider=\"colors particles effects\"><article class=\"x-div e923-e54 mpn-1s mpn-1t mpn-1u mpn-1w mpn-1x mpn-20 mpn-22 mpn-24 mpn-25 mpn-6\"><div class=\"x-text x-content e923-e55 mpn-1i mpn-1q mpn-6\">Jan \/ 2024<\/div><div class=\"x-div e923-e56 mpn-1s mpn-1u mpn-1v mpn-1w mpn-1x mpn-20 mpn-24 mpn-26\"><div class=\"x-text x-text-headline e923-e57 mpn-1a mpn-1d mpn-1e mpn-1h\"><div class=\"x-text-content\"><div class=\"x-text-content-text\">\n<h3 class=\"x-text-content-text-primary\">How Can We Attract Hungarian Emigrants Back Home?<\/h3><\/div><\/div><\/div><span class=\"x-anchor x-anchor-button has-graphic e923-e58 mpn-2c mpn-2d mpn-2e\" tabindex=\"0\"><div class=\"x-anchor-content\"><span class=\"x-graphic\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i class=\"x-icon x-graphic-child x-graphic-icon x-graphic-primary\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-x-icon-l=\"&#xf105;\"><\/i><\/span><div class=\"x-anchor-text\"><span class=\"x-anchor-text-primary\">Read more<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/span><\/div><figure class=\"x-div e923-e59 mpn-1s mpn-1u mpn-1v mpn-27 mpn-6 mpn-7\" data-x-effect=\"{&quot;durationBase&quot;:&quot;650ms&quot;}\"><span class=\"x-image e923-e60 mpn-2i\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Hogyan_csabitsuk_haza.jpg\" width=\"836\" height=\"470\" alt=\"Featured image for \u201cHow Can We Attract Hungarian Emigrants Back Home?\u201d\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/figure><\/article><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"x-row x-container max width e923-e61 mpn-9 mpn-a mpn-c mpn-e mpn-g mpn-j mpn-l mpn-o mpn-p mpn-w\"><div class=\"x-row-inner\"><div class=\"x-col e923-e62 mpn-x mpn-z mpn-11 mpn-12 mpn-14 mpn-16 mpn-19\"><a class=\"x-anchor x-anchor-button e923-e63 mpn-2d mpn-2e mpn-2f mpn-2g\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/publications\/\"><div class=\"x-anchor-content\"><div class=\"x-anchor-text\"><span class=\"x-anchor-text-primary\">Additional Publications<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/a><a class=\"x-anchor x-anchor-button e923-e64 mpn-2d mpn-2f mpn-2h\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/contact\/\"><div class=\"x-anchor-content\"><div class=\"x-anchor-text\"><span class=\"x-anchor-text-primary\">Contact<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economic Forecasting and Modeling We interpret and forecast future economic processes on the basis of data-driven models.Verifiable methodology For us, forecasting is not fortune-telling but methodology.Our models not only chart macroeconomic trajectories but also show how economic and social factors interact with one another \u2014 from consumption habits to labour-market processes. Macroeconomic forecastingRegular, model-based forecasting of GDP, inflation, the labour &#8230; <\/p>\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/economic-forecasting-and-modeling\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"template-blank-4.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"szolgaltatas":[],"class_list":["post-923","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=923"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/923\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":943,"href":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/923\/revisions\/943"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"szolgaltatas","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egkt.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/szolgaltatas?post=923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}